In continuation from last week, it’s time to look at the title pictures for the middleweight, welterweight and lightweight divisions of the UFC. This isn’t about prospects, this is about fighters who have a legitimate chance of fighting for their respective titles before 2008 comes to a close. Don’t forget to take a look at the UFC rankings at the top of the page of both Fightstalker Originals and the Fightstalker.com for a more in-depth look at each division.
Middleweight Division
Champion: Anderson Silva
Top Contenders: Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt, Yushin Okami, Rich Franklin, Travis Lutter
Dark horse: Ricardo Almeida, Georges St.Pierre, Martin Kampmann
Few weight classes have ever been so dominated by one man. To make matters worse, four out of the five top contenders already own recent loses to the champ. That’s were Yushin Okami comes in. No, Okami doesn’t deserve a title shot. His lose to Rich Franklin assured that, but a lack of competition may get him one faster than he deserves. Why Okami? The reasoning is simple, he holds a (DQ) win over the champ. Still, he’ll have to earn it. The man known as “Thunder” will likely have to fight a top contender, someone like Nate Marquardt, in order to get a title shot.
Other contenders are closer to pretenders; Marquardt, Rich Franklin, Travis Lutter and Dan Henderson are all fighters who could have a chance of redeeming their loses to “The Spider” before the year is out; none of them should hold there breath (especially Franklin). Each fighter mentioned owns a recent lose to the champion, and aside from Lutter, none even made the contest very close. All the fighters mentioned above will likely have to prove themselves, with Nate Marquardt and Travis Lutter at a slight advantage. That said, the future is in Okami’s hands.
The dark horse of the division has to be Ricardo Almeida. As a former Pride, UFC and Pancrase veteran, Almeida’s skills pose a legitimate threat to the Spiders crown. The question is whether the aging veteran has anything left in the tank or if he’s just getting started? Before retiring in 2003, Almeida defeated the likes of Nate Marquardt, Kaz Misaki and Ryo Chonan and was in the midst of a two and half year win streak. His recent return has been impressive but not very noteworthy. Facing last minute fill in (for Alan Belcher) Rob Yundt, Almeida looked unstoppable. Still, he’ll need a win over someone a little more talented if he wants to challenge for the title before the year is out.
A couple more dark horses needs to be mentioned. It’s possible, although not likely, that Michael Bisping could get his shot if he’s able to put away one of the division’s top talents, but he’ll have to be fast. His fight with the Charles McCarthy will do less for his career than his win over Elvis Sinosic. More or less, it will show that he’s still breathing. It’s hard to imagine Bisping seeing a PPV main event in 2008.
Martin Kampmann is a more intriguing option. Before any injury sidetracked him a year ago, the Dutch striker was set to square off against Rich Franklin for a number one contender fight (a fight that later went to Yushin Okami). Kampmann’s return will be at UFC 85 in London, and it appears as if he’ll be given an opportunity to work off the ring rust as he faces Jorge Rivera. While Rivera is tougher than most fans give him credit, a victory over the veteran wouldn’t establish Kampmann as the number one contender. It’s likely that Kampmann wouldn’t get any opportunity to prove himself until later this year, a move that would prevent him from fighting Silva until 2009.
Georges St.Pierre Whispers: Rumors have been floating all around the Internet about a possible GSP-Silva showdown for the middleweight championship. These rumors are nothing new, Matt Hughes publicly contemplated taking on Silva in the past. Yet, something dramatic has changed, the middleweight crown has run out of contenders. If Pierre is able to defeat Serra, a fight between two champions would not only show who the best 185lb fighter in the UFC is, but also it would arguably show who the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world is. Still, with Jon Fitch waiting in the wings at 170lbs, it’s doubtful that this fight will take place before the end of the year.
Welterweight Division
Champion: Georges St.Pierre (interim), Matt Serra
Top Contenders: Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick, Marcus Davis, Thiago Alves
Dark Horse: Matt Hughes
No matter who wins between GSP and Matt Serra, Jon Fitch is next. Amassing a perfect UFC record (8-0) and defeating the likes of Diego Sanchez and Thiago Alves, the AKA middleweight is eagerly awaiting his chance at UFC gold. It is possible that he’ll have to fight the winner of Mike Swick-Marcus Davis, but it isn’t likely.
His teammate Josh Koscheck, while a unanimous number two contender, is still a few fights from title contention. Assuming that Fitch doesn’t win the belt, it’s foreseeable that the former NCAA National Champion could get his crack before the year is out, but he would need a high profile win , maybe over the loser of GSP-Serra or the winner of Swick-Davis. Still, owning a loss to GSP less than a year ago, the force is weak with this one.
Speaking of Marcus Davis and Mike Swick, these two contenders are at opposite points in their UFC careers. Swick hasn’t looked like himself in over a year, a loss to Yushin Okami and a lackluster middleweight debut have put The Ultimate Fighter alum in a must-win situation.
On the other hand, Davis has been on a tear. The “Irish Hand Grenade” has been on a six fight win streak in the UFC, and has been victorious in his last eleven fights overall. A win over Swick would put him within striking distance of a title shot. The possibility of either of these fighters fighting for UFC’s highest glory isn’t likely, but a few injuries could change everything.
Then we have Thiago Alves. After dismantling Karo Parisyan, Alves is well on his way to title contention. Still, loses to Fitch and Spencer Fisher as well as a suspension for steroid use, haunt the welterweight prospect. It’s unlikely that a title shot is in his near future, but wins over opponents like Marcus Davis, Mike Swick would brighten his future fast. If all goes right, it’s not entirely unrealistic to envision “The Pitbull” in UFC gold in 2008.
How soon we forget Matt Hughes. The man’s a dark horse simply because he’s Matt FREAKING Hughes. He will undoubtedly be true to his word of taking time off, but a win by Matt Serra could change his mind. The two time welterweight champion might be at the end of his rope, but his legacy could put him firmly back into the title picture. It’s highly unlikely, but that’s why he’s a dark horse.
Lightweight Division
Champion: BJ Penn
Top Contenders: Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian, Roger Huerta, Tyson Griffin,
Dark Hourse: Joe Stevenson
Here’s where things get a little hairy. While the Sean Sherk-BJ Penn fight will settle the dispute over who’s the best lightweight in the UFC, picking through the rest is a bit complicated. One thing we do know, Roger Huerta and Kenny Florian are the favorites. Florian has been on a run since losing in lay-and-pray fashion to Sherk, while Huerta impressed even the most cynical MMA fan with his victory over Clay Guida. If Florian’s recent post-fight comments are any indication, these two could be locking horns before the summer of 2008 comes to an end.
After Florian and Huerta, we have Tyson Griffin. By defeating the likes of Clay Guida and Thiago Tavares, Griffin hasn’t been dodging tough competition. That said, he’s been far from dominant. A close win over Clay Guida and a loss to Frank Edgar have put questions to Griffin’s contender status. Simply put, he needs more wins. A dominate victory over Marcus Aurelio at UFC 86 in July would be a good start, but seeing the current UFC lightweight rankings, he’ll need a higher profile win.
The division’s dark horse comes in the form of former number one contender Joe Stevenson. After the Ultimate Fighter 2 winner was dominated by B.J. Penn for the lightweight title, the MMA community has seemingly forgotten he exists. STevenson may have been dominated, but the step in competition can do that. It’s hard to blame a guy for tapping out after fighting off the ground attack of Penn with blood in his eyes. Anyone thinking Joe Daddy is a push over might be in for a surprise. While doubtful to be in the title picture before 2009, counting Joe Daddy out would be a mistake for fans and fighters alike.