UFC 94 Picks and Preview

CH (155): BJ Penn (19-5) (9-3) 1TD vs. CH (170): Georges St. Pierre (16-2) (10-2) 1TD
What can I say about this fight that hasn’t already been said? The biggest question remaining is whether or it can live up to the hype. After all the promotion it has received, anything less than a “Fight of the Year” candidate would be considered a failure. That leads me to a more important question, who wins?

When Jay Dee Penn is on his game, he’s unstoppable. No one in the lightweight division has a better combination of hard hands and slick jujitsu. The welterweight division is a whole different story. No, Penn’s skills don’t diminish against bigger opponents, but his history at the heavier weight class is cloudy at best. Because he doesn’t have much weight to cut, many feel like he doesn’t train hard enough and he ends up gassing out in the later rounds. This had led to some disappointing performances in the past. As a result, he has yet to prove anything as a welterweight since 2005.

On the opposite side of the spectrum is George St. Pierre. Despite their different approaches, he shares Penn’s rare ability to win the fight however he sees fit. The chink in the Canadians armor was uncovered by an unlikely source. Matt Serra’s knockout victory over St. Pierre proved to the entire welterweight division that the champ didn’t have a jaw of steal. GSP may have redeemed himself against Serra, but did he have his weakness exposed?

This brings me to the fight itself. Despite the well-rounded skills of both fighters, each have their preference as to how the fight will go down. B.J. Penn will likely try to keep the fight standing. He has the heavier hands, and one shot knockout ability. While Georges St. Pierre will try to bring the fight to the ground. The welterweight champion has made a habit out of punishing any and all opponents by unleashing a nasty ground-and-pound attack.

So who wins? I think St. Pierre will be too much for “The Prodigy.” He’s too big, around 185lbs on fight day, too strong and too talented. GSP will keep Penn at bay with his strikes and control the fight on the ground. I don’t see a stoppage, but then again, I don’t know what to see. These are two of the best fighters in the world. Anything could happen in this fight, and hopefully will.
My Prediction: GSP by unanimous.

#2 Lyota Machida (13-0) (6-0) vs. Thiago Silva (13-0) (5-0)
Few mainstream fans realize the significance of this fight. Both of these fighters may be under the radar, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t prolific fighters.  Silva is a undefeated prospect who has made short work of the weaker competition in the UFC. While Machida has been nothing short of dominate against all comers during his entire career.

As much as I’d like to call this a close fight, it’s not. Lyota Machida doesn’t know how to lose. His style is the definition of “counter striker.” The downside being that, if his opponent doesn’t press the fight, neither does he. As a result, fans boo while Machida has his hand raised.

Silva is a great prospect with vicious hands and slick jujitsu, but he’s just in over his head.  If Machida can defeat fighters like Rich Franklin, BJ Penn and Tito Ortiz, than Silva doesn’t stand a chance. Machida may or may not finish Silva, but he will have his had raised without a scratch from the incident.
My Prediction: Machida by decision.

Karo Parisyan (18-5) (8-3) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (11-0-1) (2-0)
Finally, Karo “Wet Blanket” Parisyan has returned! It’s been too long since I’ve seen a nice judo throw followed by 14 minutes of motionless jujitsu.  OK, so I don’t miss the Armenian Blanket. At least this fight is well overdue. These two have been scheduled to fight since the debut of MTV. The pain will end if we can just get it over with.

Both fighters come in looking to make a statement. Dong Hyun Kim might be undefeated, but his narrow victory over Matt Brown made him look like more like a product of weak opposition. He has killer hands, but it remains to be seen how well he can defend the takedown.

That’s a particularly big problem when you consider who his opponent is. Despite in inability to finsh a fight, Parisyan is one of the top welterweights in the UFC. Against Kim, he will look to do what he always does, and should come out on top with relative ease.
My Prediction: Parisyan by unanimous.

#9 Nate Diaz (10-2) (5-0) vs. #10 Clay Guida (24-9) (4-3)
Don’t look for too many sparks to fly during this match. This is a good match up, just not all that entertaining. Guida is a spark plug with tireless wrestling, but he lack the ability to put anyone away; while Diaz is a jujitsu ace who relies on his submission skills to win fights. The result will be fifteen minutes of two men lying on the ground. It will be interesting thanks due to each fighters overall skill, but it won’t be memorable.  Guida’s got good enough submission defense to neutralize Diaz jujitsu and pick up the decision win.
My Prediction: Guida by unanimous.

Stephan Bonnar (11-4) (5-3) vs. Jon Jones (6-0) (1-0)
The return of Stephan Bonnar isn’t the most monumental event, but apparently it’s important enough to make the main card of one the the UFC’s biggest events. Despite a lackluster name, his opponent, Jon “Bones” Jones is a very tough. In his first UFC action, he was able to edge past IFL veteran Andre Gusmao in impressive fashion. That should be enough to give the underachieving Bonner a hard time. Although it probably won’t keep the TUF alum from picking up the victory.
My Prediction: Bonner by TKO in 3.

#3 Jon Fitch (16-3) (8-1) vs. Akahiro Gono (28-13-7) (1-1)
Can anyone explain why this fight is on the undercard? The second best welterweight in the world doesn’t deserve this kind of treatment. That’s especially true when you consider he’s facing a very game Akihiro Gono. Either way, this fight is going to be all Fitch. Gono is a very worthy opponent, but he’s not in the same league as Fitch. Both fighters are wrestlers who look to control the pace of the fight, but Fitch is just better.
My Prediction: Fitch by TKO in 2.

Manny Gamburyan (8-3) (2-2) vs. Thiago Taveres (13-3) (3-3)
The second half of the Armenian connection takes center stage against a fading Thiago Taveres. Both fighters desperately need a win in order to maintain their UFC status, making this fight do or die.  Unfortunatly for Taveres, he doesn’t have the skills necessary to survive this fight.

Gamburyan isn’t nicknamed “The Pitbull” for nothing. He’ll take this fight to the ground in a hurry. He may not finish off the Brazilian jujitsu black belt, but he’ll do enough damage to pick up the win. Get a good look at Thiago Taveres because you may not see him in the UFC again (after this fight).
My Prediction: Gamburyan by decision.

Chris Wilson (14-4) (1-1) vs. John Howard (10-4) (0-0)
No need to waste a lot of time talking about this fight. Just know that Wilson’s a tough veteran who finds a way to win and Howard is not. Despite his nifty nickname, John “Doomsday” Howard only strikes fear in the hearts of the untested, Chris Wilson is not one of those.
My Prediction: Wilson by submission in 2.

Jake O’Brien (10-2) (3-2) vs. Christian Wellisch (8-4) (2-2)
Sometimes the UFC just needs to fulfill contract obligations. That’s the case here as two former prospects go at for the chance to fight again another day. It’s a classic match up that will likely in the way it has for the past 10 years. Jake O’Brien is a wrestler; Christian Wallisch is a stiker. The fight will start with O’Brien taking Wellisch down; and he fight will end because O’Brien stayed there for fifteen minutes.
My Prediction: O’Brien by unanimous.

UFC 93 Picks and Preview

#7 LHW Rich Franklin (24-3) (10-2) vs. #8 LHW Dan Henderson (23-6) (3-2)
This fight has been a long time coming. Both former champions have seen their ups and downs since their respective title reigns, which only adds to the intrigue of this fight.  Few non-title fights are worthy of headlining a UFC PPV, but this might one of the exceptions.

Undoubtedly, Rich Franklin would prefer to stand and bang. As one of the most prolific counter-strikers in MMA, it would seem as if he’s the kryptonite to his opponent’s big punch style. His recent domination of Matt Hamill makes “Ace” look like a sure bet, but opponent might be saving his best for last.

Based on Dan Henderson’s UFC career, it’s easy to forget that the Team Quest veteran was once a dominating Pride champion. Despite a lackluster start, Henderson is just as dangerous as he was three years ago. Once a well-rounded wrestler, “Hollywood” has fallen in love with his knockout power and it has cost him wins. If he hopes to get past Franklin, he will need to utilize all of his skills.

This is as even a fight as you will see in MMA. Both fighters are in a similar position, and desperately need wins to stay relevant. I give Franklin the edge because Henderson looks like he’s lost a step.  He skills appear to be digressing a bit, while Franklin is regaining form. Other “experts” will say the opposite, making this fight an tough one to call, but betting that “Ace” will see his hand raised.
My Prediction: Franklin by unanimous.

Mark Coleman (15-8) (6-3) vs. Mauricio Rua (16-3) (0-1)
Coleman-Rua II looks more like a battle of the walking wounded than a grudge match up of epic proportions. Logically speaking, the rematch should go the way of the “Shogun,” but logic isn’t a viable option after the injuries he’s sustained over the past two years. Coleman isn’t too far off; a late scratch for a meeting with Brock Lesnar, “The Hammer” has been dealing a forty-four year old body that would probably prefer to retire.

Regardless of the injury issues, it’s hard to see Rua losing this fight. Coleman is on the downside of his career and dropping down to light heavyweight isn’t going to help too much. Rua will likely avoid Coleman’s relentless double-leg takedown attempts and sink in a submission sometime in the second round.
My Prediction: Rua by submission in 2.

Alan Belcher (13-5) (4-3) vs. Denis Kang (31-10-1) (0-0)
It’s going to be interesting to see if Denis Kang has any gas left in his tank. He looked dominate in his last fight as he disposed of Marvin “Glass Jaw” Eastman in under a minute, but has lost three of his last six fights. His debut opponent may not be the top of the class, but Alan Belcher has proven a tough fight for anyone in the division.

This has all the makings of an explosive fight. While both fighters are well-rounded, they’ll likely keep this fight on its feet for the benefit of the crowd.  Assuming his skills aren’t digressing, Kang is a superior fighter in every aspect of the game. This isn’t to say that Belcher doesn’t have skills to win the fight, but has yet to show the maturity to put it all together and become a legitimate contender in the UFC.

Look for the pace of this fight to start in a hurry and end in a bang. Belcher should coming charging out of the gate, but end up getting dropped later in the fight.  Belcher has a good shot at an upset, but his shortcomings are just too big to ignore.
My Prediction: Kang by TKO in 3.

Jeremy Horn (80-18-5) (5-6) vs. #8 Rousimar Palhares (8-2) (1-1)
Caution folks, the ground game will be in full force for this fight. Despite his forty-nine submission victories, Jeremy Horn comes in looking to avoid the ground game of Rousimar Palhares. In only ten professional fights, the man known as “Toquinho” has gained a reputation as someone who shouldn’t be messed with on the ground by anyone, even Jeremy Horn.

If Palhares can submit Ivan Salaverry, Horn doesn’t stand a chance. Look for this fight to go to the ground early and often. Horn lacks the takedown defense to keep the Brazilian on his toes and it’ll cost him. It may not happen the first time he goes to the ground, but it will happen.
My Prediction: Palhares by submission in 2.

#8 Marcus Davis (14-4) (6-2) vs. Chris Lytle (26-16-5) (5-8)
This fight should be more of a war than a fight. Both fighters have shown iron jaws and hands of steel, meaning a “Fight of the Night” is imminent. Davis is probably the better all around striker, but he could have trouble with Lytle’s brawling style. Despite it’s billing, look for this fight to go the distance with the emerging Davis coming out on top.
My Prediction: Davis by unanimous.

#6 Martin Kampmann (13-2) (4-1) vs. Alexandre Barros (13-5) (0-0)
Dutch kick boxer Martin Kampmann looks to redeem himself against UFC newcomer Alexandre Barros. Do yourself a favor while watching this fight; don’t blink. Looking to make a statement in a new division (welterweight), Kampmann will come out throwing against the shockingly mediocre Barros. Unless the weight cut makes Kampmann weak, look for Barros to “go boom” some time during the first round.
My Prediction: Kampmann by TKO in 1.

NOTE: The undercard for UFC 93 has more no names than a Chinese orphanage. It’s not a good sign that Eric “Red” Schafer is the most recognizable fighter on this portion of the card. I don’t mean recognizable to the average fan either, these are fighters that aren’t even recognized at their own gyms.

Eric Schafer (8-3-2) (2-2) vs. Antonio Mendes (14-3) (0-1)
Eric Schafer isn’t going to “wow” Antonio Mendes with a flashy stand up game. That’s because Mendes will too busy gasping for air to say anything. Mendes is an overrated fighter who struggles against anyone with a blue belt, and Schafer’s wearing black. Good night Mendes. I hope you enjoyed your UFC tenor because it might just be over.
My Prediction: Schafer by submission in 1.

Tomasz Drwal (14-2) (0-1) vs. Ivan Serati (10-2) (0-0)
It’s sad, the only reason I remember Tomasz Drwal is because of how ridiculously his name is spelled. He hasn’t fought in the UFC (or anywhere else for that matter) in over a year and it doesn’t appear that he was injured. That can’t bode well for Drwal’s future, but at least his short term look promising. His opponent, Ivan Serati, is more inferior version of himself. Considering Drwal is no “can’t miss” prospect, this should be a sloppy, yet gratifying fight.
My Prediction: Drwal by TKO in 2.

Thomas Egan (3-0) (0-0) vs. John Hathaway (9-0) (0-0)
This has to be a sign of a weak economy. Joe Silva must have overshot the budget and only had 20 grand left and decided that England and Ireland haven’t fought enough. Neither fighter has earned the right to be here, but Hathaway’s (England)  got the experience and will likely pick up the win.
My Prediction: Hathaway by submission in 2.

Dennis Siver (12-6) (1-3) vs. Nate Mohr (8-5) (1-2)
It’s hard to believe that Siver was actually brought back for this fight. After going a dreadful 1-3 in UFC competition, the former prospect was resigned after only one fight in the independants. Joe Silva must know something we don’t. That, or Siver he has a picture of Dana White with a farm animal and he’s ready to go the press. Either way this ends up a match up of the wannabes. Neither fighter has the hands they were advertised to have, but Siver appears much more dangerous.
My Prediction: Siver by TKO in 2.

UFC 92 Picks and Preview

CH: Forrest Griffin (16-4) (7-2) vs. #1 Rashad Evans (12-0-1) (7-0-1)
Will Rashad attempt to take Forrest down or will he try to stand and bang? The question is key when attempting to pick the winner of this fight. If Evans decided to stand and brawl, he’ll be playing into the hands of the infamous brawler. Rashad’s stand up is impressive, but Griffin has a way of neutralizing his opponents stand up on way to a victory.

If Evans tries to take this fight to the ground, he has a legitimate shot to win. I just don’t think he will. I’ve been going back and forth on this fight for the past month and I’ll surly switch my pick a dozen times before the fight airs, but my gut says Griffin … for now.
My Prediction: Griffin by unanimous.

CH: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-4-1) (2-0) vs. #2 Frank Mir (11-3) (9-3)
I just don’t see a way for Mir to win. Nogueira has better cardio, hands, chin and even ground game than the man used to refer to as “Spare Tire.” Mir’s only shot is taking down Nogueira an controlling him. While I think he has the Jiu-jitsu to accomplish that, he doesn’t have the wrestling to get the fight where he wants it. This fight is all Big Nog.
My Prediction: Nogueira by unanimous.

C.B. Dollaway (7-1) (1-1) vs. Mike Massenzio (11-2) (1-0)
Typically, when two wrestlers step into the Octagon together, boredom wins. This fight is different for one reason: C.B. Dollaway. Despite an All-American wrestling pedigree from Arizona State, Dollaway has TKO’d and submitted his way through the competition. That doesn’t bode well for the Massenzio. Unless M&M can pull of a submission victory, “The Doberman” will pick up the victory.
My Prediction: C.B. Dollaway by TKO in 2.

#5 Wanderlei Silva (32-8-1) (2-3) vs. #2 Quinton Jackson (28-7) (3-1)
The fight has more questions than a terrorist interrogation. Is Silva back to his old “Axe Murderer” ways? What’s Rampage’s mindset? Is Silva in his head? The only way to find out could result in the “Fight of the Night.” Both fighters will look to impose their will in the stand up game, with Rampage looking to put Silva on his back on way or the other.

My bet is simple: “The Axe Murderer” isn’t back. Rampage, mental breakdown and all, is better fighter at this stage in career. I’d even go as far as to say that he should still be the light heavyweight champion. I look for a slam followed by a TKO late in the fight.
My Prediction: Rampage by TKO in 3.

#4 Cheick Kongo (12-4-1) (5-2) vs. Mustapha Al Turk (6-3) (0-0)
Oh boy. I hope Cheick Kongo’s spent the better part of the last two-years in wrestling camp, because the Al-Turk train is coming. Kongo’s got a nasty stand up game, but he’ll have a hard time using it from his back. Al Turk is a ADCC European champion (submission wrestling) and a stylistic nightmare for Kongo.  I see an upset victory for the former Cage Rage champion.
My Prediction: Al-Turk by submission in 2.

The Undercard:

#1 Yushin Okami (22-4) (6-1) vs. Dean Lister (11-5) (4-1)
This fight looks great on paper, but it will bring 15 minutes of boredom to TV sets across the world. As of now it’s set to be an undercard fight, but considering the caliber of the fighters it may see the airwaves after all. Look for this fight to be a lay-and-prey lovefest as Okami dominates Lister with the takedown. The king of grappling will attempt many submissions, but none will land.
My Prediction: Okami by unanimous.

#9 Antoni Hardonk (7-4) (3-2) vs. Mike Wessel (6-0) (0-0)
Don’t put too much stock into either of these one-dimensional fighters. While neither is destined for title glory, this fight could make it on the card for entertainment purposes. Hardonk is a superior striker, but Wessel isn’t smart enough to know that. Look for fireworks.
My Prediction: Hardonk by TKO in 1.

Matt Hamill (4-2) (4-2) vs. Reese Andy (7-3) (0-1)
Matt Hamill has his back against the wall. That’s not a good thing for Andy Reese. Both men are wrestlers, but Hamill is better in every aspect. Look for the fight to be decided on the feet.
My Prediction: Hamill by TKO in 2.

Ryo Chonan (15-8) (1-1) vs. Brad Blackburn (15-9) (1-0)
Chonan has looked terrible in the UFC. Despite being known as a guy who finishes fights, he’s gone on to two lackluster decision in his UFC tenor. That should change, but in a bad way. Blackburn is a nasty striker with a killer instinct. Unless the Chonan of old shows up, this fight won’t end well for the former Pride veteran.
My Prediction: Blackburn by TKO in 2.

Dan Evensen (10-3) (0-1) vs. Pat Barry (3-0) (0-0)
Pat Barry is a machine. The kickboxing sensation looks to make short work of a shocking mediocre Evenson. If this fight ends early, and it should, look for it to make the card as a time fill in.
My Prediction: Barry by TKO in 1.

The Ultimate Fighter Finale

If the UFC ever had an amateur night, it would be The Ultimate Fighter Finale. It makes for a tough card to call, but an entertaining show to watch. Much like the show, this will be the only shot at UFC glory for most of these guys.

Phillipe Nover (5-0-1) (0-0) vs. Efrain Escudero (10-0) (0-0)
Some would look at the results from The Ultimate Fighter and think that these two men are cut from the same cloth.  While it may be true that each defeated their opponents in the same fashion, both have a surprisingly different approach.

Nover is a Brazilian Jujitsu black belt that has something  that separates him from other black belts: hands. He may not be dropping everyone in sight, but his Muy Thai skills allow him to dictate the pace of a fight. Expect these skills to come into play against Escudero. Nover will look use a tight clinch and heavy hands to take the fight to the ground.

His opponent, Efrain Escudero, is also looking to take the fight to the ground. As a successful collegiate wrestler, Escudero uses his skills to take the fight down. That’s where his wrestling ends and his jujitsu begins. Suprisingly, the All-American wrestler owns nine submission victories in 10 fights. Against Nover, it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to get another submission victory, but his wrestling could be the X factor in the fight.

I see a fast paced that’s will go the distance. Both fighters are very talented, but they’re so evenly matched it’s hard to imagine the other stopping the fight. Being in the position of having to pick, I’m going with Nover because of his Muy Thai. I could easily be saying the same thing for Escudero and his wrestling, but I feel like Nover will be an even more dominate fighter now that he’s gotten a chance to train full-time.
My Prediction: Nover by unanimous.

Ryan Bader (7-0) (0-0) vs. Vinicius Magalhaes (2-2) (0-0)
Yet another Arizona State wrestler makes in into the finale (C.B. Dollaway was the other) as Ryan Bader looks to keep his limbs intact against submission machine Vinny Magalhaes. You might as well call this fight a “Survivor” match because it’s a question of: can Bader keep from getting submitted?

Be warned: wrestlers and grapplers have a history … a long boring history. It goes like this, a wrestler takes a grappler down … nothing happens. After watching Bader’s fight against Eliot Marshall, this could be a long one.

What could make this fight different is Vinny Magalhaes.  He’s not just a Brazilian Jujitsu black belt; he’s one of the most decorated grapplers in all of MMA.  There’s only one problem; he has the hands of a 14 year-old Taiwanese girl.  As a result, he have a hard to keeping the Arizona State wrestler from taking him to the ground. It’s only a matter of if Bader’s good enough to keep from getting submitted.

The key to this fight lies with the takedown. If Vinny can get it, the fight’s over; if Bader gets it, all boredom might break lose. Despite the obvious lack in any secondary skill, I feel a Vinicius victory. He showed a lot of skill when he submitted Krzysztof and I feel like he’ll take that momentum into this fight.
My Prediction: Magalhaes by submission.

Kevin Burns (7-1) (2-0) vs. Anthony Johnson (5-2) (2-2)
Five months after the infamous eye gouge, we finally get to see a rematch. The last time these two fought, Burns did what you would think any grappler would do; he threw hands? Despite a major advantage on the ground, Burns attempted to throw leather with one of the divisions more dominate strikers. Hopefully for Burns, hindsight is 20/20 and we’ll see more grappling than striking this time around.

Eager to get revenge, Johnson is thirsty for blood. Despite having a wrestling prowess, he’s known more for his fight stopping power than a single-leg. Where Johnson gets into to trouble is on the ground. If he’s down, he’s out. That’s exactly why he’s not going to win. He’s very talented, but his ground game is dreadful. Burns should learn from his past mistakes and use his grappling instead of his gouging in this one.
My Prediction: Burns by submission in 2.

#9 Jason MacDonald (21-10) (5-3) vs. Wilson Gouveia (11-5) (5-3)
The UFC middleweight division is getting younger and tougher everyday. That’s why this match up of two talented middleweights has a sense of urgency; neither can afford another loss if they want to stay within a 10-mile radius of the title picture. That goes double for MacDonald. Despite having victories over Chris Leben and Ed Herman, MacDonald’s getting the reputation as more of a gatekeeper than a contender.

It’s hard to say where this fight will end up because both fighters are so well rounded. MacDonald has a slick submission game and good hoods. The only problem is: Gouveia does too.  The biggest issue with Gouveia hasn’t been skills; it’s been his drive. He’s has the tools to be a champion, but it remians to be seen if he’s got the motivation to reach his potential. Considering the stakes involved, that shouldn’t be issue for this fight.
My Prediction: Gouveia by unanimous.

Junie Browning (2-0) (0-0) vs. Dave Kaplin (2-1) (0-0)
I don’t care what Dana White says; he must have something for Junie Browning. I understand his logic for allowing Browning to fight in the semi finals, but putting him on this fight card is a bit much. The sooner he disappears, the better.  Even worse, he’s taking on someone he’ can easily beat.
My Prediction: Browning by submission in 2.

Krzysztof Soszynski (15-8-1) (0-0) vs. Shane Primm (1-0) (0-0)
Soszynski is a no rookie. Despite being on the cast of The Ultimate Fighter, he’s actually an IFL veteran who had no business being on the show. He may not have won, but he’s may be the most prepared for the transition to the UFC. He takes on Shane Primm is what is essentially just a formality. Primm will go “boom” and then leave the UFC forever. You don’t need to know anything else.
My Prediction: Soszynski by TKO in 1.

Eliot Marshall (5-1) (0-0) vs. Jules Bruchez (0-0) (0-0)
It’s always hard to determine how good fighter when they have yet to appear in a professional fight. What I do know about Jules Bruchez isn’t good.  He was submitted by Vinny on the show, something that’s not exactly working for him against Marshall.  While it’s hard to judge based on that alone, Marshall’s a stud who has the deck stacked in his favor for this fight. He shouldn’t have any trouble with Jules.
My Prediction: Marshall by submission in 1.

Kyle Kingsbury (7-1) (0-0) vs. Tom Lawlor (4-1) (0-0)
Here, buried in the undercard, is an explosion. Neither fighter made a big impression on the show, but both are known to throw leather. Leather is good. A look at the records of both fighters share a similar story filled with KO’s of lesser opponents. What will happen when they face off? Considering that Kingsbury didn’t even win the fight to get in the house (he was an injury replacement), I’d have to take Lawlor.
My Prediction: Lawlor by TKO in 1.

Shane Nelson (10-3) (0-0) vs. George Roop (8-3) (0-0)
Despite Shane Nelson’s douche-like status, he’s a tough fighter who trains under BJ Penn. I’m not sure that what “The Prodigy” is saying is sinking in because Nelson is a decision machine. Roop is a bit more definitive. While he used his hands more on the show, he’s historically more of a grappler. I won’t bore you with more. This fight will go to the one who wants it the most. That fighter is definitely George Roop.
My Prediction: Roop by TKO in 2.

Roli Delgado (5-3-1) (0-0) vs. John Polakowski (2-1) (0-0)
I’d talk about this fight, but I have nothing to say. Sometime the UFC just needs to fill out a fight card. The only thing I know is that John “Buckets of Blood” Polakowski (that’s his real nickname) has only fought one guy in his career, Olaf Alfonso (7-9), and he did it THREE TIMES. I say he loses, but not because of that fact. No, he loses because he’s fighting the “Crazy Cuban.”
My Prediction: Delgado by no apparent reason.

Picks and Preview: Ultimate Fight Night 16

Free MMA should be a staple of any legitimate television network. They should all take notes from Spike, Versus and HDnet. This card brings a lot of studs and duds, but it’s all good because its free. Enjoy.

#4 Josh Koscheck (11-3) (8-3) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2) (1-0)
It’s OK to hate, that’s just how the UFC likes it. Josh Koscheck is not headlining this card because he’s one of the best welterweights in all of MMA. No, he’s headlining this card for one reason: you hate him. In a world where television rating measure success; Koscheck is a sure bet.

He gets no free pass though, he’ll his hands full with highly touted prospect Yoshiyuki Yoshida. The man known as “Zenko” has been on fire as of late, thanks in large part to the dynamite in his hands and well rounded ground skills. Yoshida will look to avoid Kos’ takedowns at all costs and stay at a safe distance in order to let his hands free.  Good luck with that. Few fighters this side of Georges St. Pierre can avoid the nasty double-leg of the Mr. Popular himself.

I see this fight going to the ground fast. Yoshiro will get his chances due to a respectable ground game, but he’ll need to capitalize fast if he hopes to stay out of Kos’ grasp. As much as my attention span hates to hear it, this looks like a “wet blanket” win for Kos.
My Prediction: Koscheck by unanimous.

#7 Mike Swick (12-2) (7-1) vs. Jonathan Goulet (22-9) (4-3)
I refuse to call Swick by his obvious nickname. He may have earned that nickname early in his UFC career, but it should sue for lack of support based on his recent performances. Since ripping through his first four UFC opponents (combined 5:10), Swick hasn’t finished a fight. Admittedly he’s faced stiffer competition, but his style of fighting has been more about “not losing” than winning.

The only way to describe his opponent is classy. Jonathan Goulet earned an opportunity to face a top contender like any true champion would; he talked trash about Swick on the MMA Weekly forums. It’s apparent than Goulet knew he wasn’t going to get the fight based on his illustrious record, so he did the only way a guy with purple, red and green hair would do. Congratulations.

As far as the fight goes, Swick is better in every way. Goulet has good hands, Swick has excellent hands; Swick has a solid ground game, Goulet flops around like sailfish in the desert. I’m sure what that means exactly, but I’m trying to say he has no ground game. If this fight goes the distance it will be an injustice. Mike Swick is simply better than that, I just hope he knows that.
My Prediction: Swick by TKO in 2.

Steve Cantwell (6-1) (3-1 in WEC) vs. Razak Al-Hussan (6-0) (0-0)
This is what called, “stacking the deck” for Steve Cantwell.  Previously scheduled to face Mr. Marine, Brian Stann, Cantwell stands to garner some attention for himself when he faces off against Al-Hussan.  In desperate need of a hug, Cantwell goes from villain to hero as he faces off against an untested fighter (who has a name that will endear him to the 20,000 troops) on cable television. Al-Hussan may be undefeated, but his opponents have been so illegitimate that can’t get through a Gmail spam filter.

This is likely just a PR fight for Cantwell-Stann III. Cantwell is a complete fighter who poses great stand-up and a nice ground game. Al-Hussan is unlikely to posses enough skills to get this fight to the ground, so his fate looks to be sealed. Cantwell will look to keep the fight on its feet in order to impose his will and endear himself to the crowd.
My Prediction: Cantwell by TKO in 1.

Nate Loughran (9-0) (1-0) vs. Tim Credeur (10-2) (1-0)
Possibly the most likeable middleweight on The Ultimate Fighter Season 7, Tim Credeur makes his second trip into the Octagon. After demolishing Cale Yarbrough in his official UFC debut, he faces a much stiffer task in undefeated submission specialist Nate Loughran.

To say that Loughran is on a roll would be an understatement. His nine professional wins have left veteran mixed-martial artists like Brian Warren, Kenny Ento and, most recently, Johnny Rees in his wake.  He’ll look to get Credeur to the ground, but might get be a bit suprised by Credeur’s jujitsu skills (seven of his 10 wins have been by submission).

I see this fight ending on the ground. While Credeur is confortable in that realm, Loughran’s is world class.  Credeur should get a few shots in, but unfortunately he doesn’t typically have enough power in them to finish the fight (only 3 TKOs).
My Prediction: Loughran by submission in 2.

Jim Miller (12-1) (1-0) vs. Matt Wiman (10-3) (4-1)
Few fighters have been more surprising than Matt Wiman. After looking more like a underwear model than a fighter on The Ultimate Fighter, Wiman’s been brawling his way through the lightweight clutter. Now, he faces his toughest test since he fought Spencer Fisher as he takes on top prospect Jim Miller.

Miller might be a replacement fighter, but he brings more raw skills to the table than the man he replaced (Frank Edgar). Miller is more than wrestler; he’s got a submission game that few can match.  Because of this, Wiman will look to keep the fight standing in order to capitalize on his brawling skills.  Call it what you will, it’s got Wiman on a three fight win streak that few saw coming.

In the end, Wiman’s reign of gutsy brawling victories will come to an end. Miller is simply too much for the scrappy Ultimate Fighter and will likely end the fight shortly after achieving a hard-earned takedown.
My Prediction: Miller by submission in 3.

Luigi Fioravanti (10-4) (3-4) vs. Brodie Farber (13-4) (0-1)
The only downside to free MMA is a fight like this.  Luigi Fioravanti had been nothing but a disappoint in his UFC career. Once an undefeated prospect, the American Top Team welterweight has looked outmatched against the division’s tougher talent.  He likes to swing, but hasn’t even done that well as of late. He’s one loss away from a ticket out and Brodie Farber may be just the guy to give it to him. Farber isn’t a stud, but his submission skills will likely be the final straw for 3-4 veteran.
My Prediction: Farber by submission in 1.

Steve Bruno (11-4) (0-1) vs. Johnny Rees (10-1) (0-1)
I’m pretty sure Rees only got a UFC contract because of his nickname, “The Hater Hunter.” Apparently he’s going to be hunting me, because I don’t believe he belongs in the UFC. As a matter of fact, this fight fits a ShoXC card better than the UFC. On the plus side, both Bruno and Rees are of equal talent so if nothing else, this should be a competitive fight.

The only thing I know about these two fighters is their style; Rees is more of a grappler, while Bruno prefers to keep it standing.  Whenever I’m faced with only those facts, I always look at MMA history and pick the grappler.
My Prediction: I pick “The Hater Hunter” by submission in 2.

Ben Saunders (6-0-2) (2-0) vs. Brandon Wolff (7-2) (0-0)
Ben Saunders is a bit of an enigma. After a mediocre showing on The Ultimate Fighter, Saunders has done well since hitting the big stage. For this fight he takes on a relative unknown in veteran fighter Brandon Wolff. This fight is a bit troubling for one reason: both fighters have problems finishing a fight. It’s clear that Saunders is more talented, but Wolff’s inability to finish fights makes it unclear just how good he really is. He’s fought for many different prominant organizations over the past six years.

Regardless of experience, I’m going to put my money with the younger, more talented Saunders. Wolff may have been around the world and back, but he has yet to stick anywhere. I don’t think the UFC will be any different.
My Prediction: Saunders by unanimous.

Dale Hartt (5-1) (0-1) vs. Corey Hill (2-1) (1-1)
The closest the UFC has ever come to developing a fighter is Corey Hill.  The young fighter showed a lot of promise on The Ultimate Fighter, but has spent his early UFC career doing more training than fighting. While spending most of his time at the Militech camp, Hill has sharpened a variety of skills and could become a viable threat in the near future. His opponent should be a good test.

Dale Harrt has great hands. Why wouldn’t he? He’s a student of Muy Thai master Mark DellaGrotte. The only knock on Harrt is his takedown defense; it simply doesn’t exist. If he hopes to win, he’ll need to keep the young Hill throwing. That task might be tougher than Hill’s 2-1 record would show. The man has done nothing but train with world-class wrestlers for almost a year now. As a result, I see this fight finishing by TKO on the ground. If you’re going to fight in MMA, you gotta have a ground game.
My Prediction: Hill by ground-and-pound in 2.

#10 Eddie Sanchez (8-2) (3-2) vs. Justin McCully (8-4-2) (1-1)
This will forever be known as the fight of “could-have-beens.” By forever, I mean for the next fifteen seconds. This fight is more forgettable than a Kimbo Slice interview. Both fighters are on their way out, but Sanchez has the most talent and will likely push McCully back onto the independent circuit.
My Prediction: Sanchez by TKO in 3.

UFC 91 Picks and Preview

UFC 91 is finally upon us. This card should go down in the record books as one of the highest grossing PPV’s in the history of MMA. Overall, it’s a marginal card being held up by the main event and number one contender fight. Either way it’s UFC entertainment at its best. Bring it on.

Enjoy
Brett “The Conqueror” Beverly

CH: Randy Couture (16-8) (13-5) 1 TD vs.  #1 Brock Lesnar (2-1) (1-1)
Two months ago this fight seemed like more like a publicity stunt than a fight for the heavyweight title. Call it what you want, this is one of the most intriguing fights in UFC history. Truth is, no one knows how good Brock Lesnar really is. He may have crushed Heath Herring, but aside from the “jab heard around the world,” he basically ground-and-pounded his way to victory. As impressive as that victory was, Randy Couture is a much different animal.

On that note, it’s hard to gauge just where Couture is right now. I personally doubt that the layoff did that much to deteriorate his skills, but it’s a legitimate worry. Remember, this is the same layoff theory that was floating around when Couture returned to take on Tim Sylvia. This time should be no different. Lesnar is a monster, but he’s yet to fight in five professional fights. That doesn’t equal an automatic “Natural” win, but it sure makes it hard to pick against him. He’s simply too smart and well prepared.
My Pick: Couture by unanimous.

#1 Kenny Florian (9-3) (8-2) vs. #2 Joe Stevenson (29-8) (6-2)
It’s my opinion that Joe “Daddy” is one of the most underrated lightweights in all of MMA. The problem lies in his rare ability to fight down to his opponent. No fighter is too bad for Stevenson to eek out a victory over. This won’t be an issue against Kenny Florian v2.0. After dropping a decision to Sean “Strawberry Douche” Sherk, KenFlo re-tooled in an awesome way and has done everything in his power to “earn” his spot atop the UFC lightweight rankings.

Each fighter has heir strengths. Kenny Florian’s stand up game is ruthless. He’ll look to to avoid Stevenson’s takedown attempts in order to finish the Ultimate Fighter with a damaging barrage of strikes. Stevenson will look to do the opposite and attempt to take down KenFlo in order to maintain control and drop some elbows. Be warned, if this fight goes to the ground, we, the fan, are in for a long fight. Both Stevenson and Florian are skilled black belts that can prevent the others attacks and submission attempts from becoming fatal.

This fight should be very close. I imagine both fighters seeing their fare of offense and defense. But in the end, I feel like Florian’s all-around skills will be too much for Stevenson.  His takedown defense and stand up are simply too strong … I think.
My Prediction: Florian by split decision.

#4 Gabriel Gonzaga (9-3) (4-2) vs. Josh Hendricks (15-4) (0-0)
Remember when “people” were claiming that Gonzaga was the second coming of Fedor? Everyone was claiming that he would destroy Couture and go on to defend his belt until the long-awaited Fedor clash would finally come into fruition? Yeah, screw you guys.

Anyway, Gonzaga returns against a game prospect by the name of John Hendricks. Being “game” is the MMA equivalent of having “a lot of heart”; it means he’s going to lose. Hendricks hasn’t lost a fight since 2005, but he’s hasn’t faced an opponent with the skills to open a checking account since then either. He’s a promising fighter, but he’s likely being led to the slaughter. The plan is to help Gonzaga get back on track. His first victim was Justin McCully, and the next should be Hendricks.  Look for strikes followed by a submission early.
My Prediction: Gonzaga by submission in 1.

Nate Quarry (10-2) (5-1) vs.  #8 Demian Maia (8-0) (3-0)
It’s hard to think about Nate Quarry without thinking of Rich Franklin. It was the knockout of all knockouts, and it put Quarry out for a long time. Back issues led to the extent of the beating and a two-year lay off followed. It still is Nate Quarry’s only loss in the UFC.  Few realize that. The problem is, the injury was so severe he had to learn to fight all over again. Ever fight in his return has gotten progressively better, but is he ready for Maia?

Damian Maia is a ground wizard. If you don’t believe me, you haven’t looked at the numbers: eight wins, seven submissions.  The thing that bugs me about Maia is his takedown style. He’s one of those jujitsu fighters that somehow gets his opponent to the ground. No single leg or leg sweep; his opponent walks in and somehow he’s on his back. This gives Quarry hope. If he can keep Maia at a distance, he will win. My girlfriend has better hand than Maia. If he gets taken down … game over.
My Prediction: Shocking unanimous decision win for Quarry. I WANT TO BELIEVE!

Dustin Hazelett (11-4) (4-2) vs. Tamdan McCrory (9-1) (2-1)
“McLovin” vs. “The Barn Cat” The loser gets their head shaved live on pay-per-view.  That would actually be a more exciting fate for these two fighters. The winner of this fight will likely live to fight another day, but that’s about it. Hazelett is the better fighter.  He’s stand up has come a long way and he has a very tight ground game. He’ll need the latter as McCrory will attempt to keep the fight standing. Key word “attempt.”
My Prediction: Brutus the Barber Beefcake will enter the cake after “McLovin” finishes off “The Barn Cat” and we’ll all laugh and point fingers while McCrory get his head shaved, then wakes up hysterically to find he has no hair.

Jorge Gurgel (12-4) (3-3) vs. Aaron Riley (26-10-1) (0-0)
In case you didn’t know, Jorge Gurgel has a striking complex. Never mind that he’s a highly decorated black belt in Brazilian jujitsu, he’s too busy wishing he was his BFF, Rich Franklin. To make matters worse, he been training with Mark DellaGrotte to improve the game he doesn’t have.

This opponent isn’t as good as Gurgel, but he knows who he is. After 36 professional fights, Aaron Riley has a good grip on his game, partially because he has good hands. Unfortunatly, not good enough to finish Gurgel, just enough to bore the living crap out of everyone within a 7 foot radius.
My Prediction: Riley by unanimous.

Jeremy Stephens (10-3) (2-2) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (11-2) (0-0)
I won’t go into to too much detail, but we have another striker vs. grapple in these two fighters. This one should go to the striker, Stephens, for one reason: dos Anjos has no takedown skills. Stephens may be a bit on the mediocre side, but he has hands and hopefully, he’ll put them to use.
My Prediction: Stephens by TKO in 2.

Alvin Robinson (9-3) (1-2) vs. Mark Bocek (5-2) (1-2)
Alvin Robinson is simpler better than Bocek in every way. Both have similar style, but Robinson is a more complete fighter at this point inn his career. Never mind why, but Robinson should walk away with a victory in this one.
My Prediction: Robinson by unanimous.

Matt Brown (7-7) (1-1) vs. Ryan Thomas (9-2) (0-1)
Oh for the love of God! Dana White has to be behind this. Brown is a straight up brawler with no apparent skills. Normally, as a losing member of the Ultimate Fighter, he’d get his three undercard fights, lose two and move on. Not Matt Brown, he’s here to stay because White has a man-crush. If he does anything noteworthy, expect this fight to make it onto the main card with Rogan and Goldberg saying Browns name, win or lose, 5,897,321 times.
My Prediction: Brown by unanimous.

WEC 36 Picks and Preview

Once again, we get to enjoy the glory of free MMA. God Bless America. In honor of this, we will be rolling out the official FightStalker WEC Rankings on Thursday. Nice, huh? It’s the least we can do. To avoid flipping a coin, I decided to omit the undercard preview with exception of Maeda vs. Yahya (which shouldn’t be on the undercard in the first place), you can pretend to be disappointed if you’d like.

Brett “The Conqueror” Beverly

CH: Urijah Faber (21-1) (6-0) vs. #1 Michael Thomas Brown (17-4) (1-0)
The California Kid rides again. This time, the potential victim is American Top Team’s Michael Thomas Brown. Don’t be thrown off by his name, he’s more than just a three-name wonder. After starting his career in mediocre fashion (9-4), MTB has gone on a seven-fight win streak that has left fighters like Jeff Curran and Yves Edwards in his wake.  In other words, the guy’s legit.

The game plan for both fighters is remarkably simple; take their opponent down.
Brown is a very well rounded fighter with excellent submission skills. He’ll look to capitalize on those abilities by unleashing a ground-and-pound attack in order to stun Urijah long enough to lock in a submission. Good luck with that.  Faber’s wrestling and improved striking should keep Thomas at bay, and will lead to a takedown that will eventually end the fight.
My Prediction: Faber by TKO in 2.

CH: Paulo Filho (16-0) (2-0) vs. #1 Chael Sonnen (20-9-1) (1-1)
Don’t look now, but there’s been a Paulo Filho sighting. Nearly 10 months after a major bout with depression almost cost him his career, Paulo Filho makes his return to the cage. Many questions surround his return, but none can be answered until he fights. If he’s back to 100 percent mentally and physically, it could be a long night for Chael Sonnen.

To his credit, Sonnen does care if Filho is 100 percent or 10 percent; he’s hungry.  A gifted wrestler, Sonnen will look to showcase his crisp striking in order to be called the WEC’s last middleweight champion. After nearly finishing the Brazilian with this very strategy, it isn’t likely that he’ll change his approach.

Regardless of how the first fight went down, Filho is simply a better fighter.  It’s simply a matter of what the champion is thinking. If he’s on top of his game, it’ll be a short night for Sonnen. My money’s on Filho.
My Prediction: Filho by submission in 2.

#3 Jens Pulver (22-9-1) (1-1) vs. #5 Leonard Garcia (11-3) (1-0)
Jens Pulver is a completely different animal at 145lbs. Despite losing to Urijah Faber in his last fight, Little Evil looks reborn. A ferocious striker, the former UFC lightweight champion has recently started training with Matt Hume and improved him game even more. That’s not good for Leonard Garcia.

Known as the “Bad Boy,” by many, and the “Mexican Redneck” by me, Garcia is something special. What that is I’m not sure. The man is known for two things; as the guy that Roger Huerta beat up on at UFC 69 and as a former suspect. Too bad none of those things will help him.  On paper, he’s a gifted grappler; in the cage he’s a grappler with a striking complex and a hard head. That’ll keep him from getting finished, but that’s about it.
My Prediction: Pulver by unanimous.

Jake Rosholt (4-0) (0-0) vs. Nissen Osterneck (5-0) (0-0)
I’d like to pretend I know something about these fighters, but I’d be lying. What I do know is remarkably simple: Jake Rosholt is a striker; Osterneck is a grappler. Both fighters are undefeated prospects looking to make good showing before they make their UFC debuts (this is at 185lbs). From the look of things, Rosholt is a bigger prospect that’s faced a higher level of competition. That’ll likely give him the edge he needs.
My Prediction: Rosholt by TKO in 1.

#1 Rob McCullough (16-4) (7-2) vs. #2 Donald Cerrone (8-0) (1-0)
This is one of the most intriguing fights in the card and it’s possible that it’ll never see the airwaves. Every listing I see has this fight as “may not be broadcast” but it’s hard to imagine that the future of the lightweight division wouldn’t be aired. Either way, the winner of this fight looks to challenge Jamie Varner for the WEC gold.

Despite his “prospect” status, Donald Cerrone has beaten some very good fighters in his young career.  Current UFC veterans Nate Mohr and Ryan Roberts have fallen victim to “The Cowboy” the only way anyone has, by submission. In eight professional fights, he owns eight professional submissions and will look to exploit that very weakness in his opponent. Razor Rob though, is a completely different animal.

Despite being drastically overrated, Rob McCullough is one tough fighter. The only question is: which Razor Rob will show up? Will it be the aggressive show stopper that put Richard Crunkilton and Kit Cope to sleep, or the ho-hum “trying not to lose” fighter that narrowly defeated Kenneth Alexander? Either way, this fight should go the distance, as the both fighters are major tests for the other.
My Prediction: Cerrone by unanimous.

#5 Rani Yahya (11-4) (1-1) vs. #2 Yishiro Maeda (23-5-2) (1-1)
Yishiro Maeda makes his return to the WEC against the one-dimensional wonder known as Rani Yahya. It’s one thing to be a grappler; it’s another to be nothing else. Yahya has shown considerable skills on te ground, but his stand up game looks more awkward than straight guy at a Celine Dion concert.

Maeda doesn’t ahev the same problem. A well-rounded fighter, Maeda made a fan of me with his gutsy performance against the Mexican Mullet, Miguel Torress. He challenged the mullet and lived to tell the tale. If that doesn’t tell you about him as a fighter, I don’t know what does. Maeda will eat Yahya for breakfast.
My Prediction: Maeda by TKO in 2.

UFC 90 Picks and Preview

Let’s just say I’m hoping for more from UFC 90 than we got from 89. Still, this fight card guarantees at least one sweet knockout an features some intriguing, division changing match ups. Let me get to the picks.

CH: Anderson Silva  (21-4) (6-0) vs. #1* Patrick Cote (13-4) (4-4)
Patrick Cote has a better chance of making the New York Knicks than he does of beating Anderson Silva. What makes this fight interesting, is the fact that Cote said he’s going to stand and bang. Did I say “stand and bang”? I’m sorry, I meant to say “stand and fall.” Anderson “The Spider” Silva will pick the Canadian apart. Cote literally has nowhere to go. On the ground or standing this fight will go to the champion.
My Prediction: Silva by TKO in 2. *previously ranked 10th, rank adjusted due to title shot

#3 Josh Koscheck (11-2) (8-2) vs. #1 Thiago Alves (15-3) (8-2)
Thiago Alves just got screwed. Originally scheduled to take on Diego Sanchez, a last-minute injury means that “The Pitbull” will be stepping up to one of the best wrestlers in all of MMA, on short notice no less. Plain and simple, this is a match up nightmare for Alves.

It sounds obvious, but Thiago Alves will look to keep the fight standing; Koscheck will try to take it to the ground. Whoever gets their wish will win the fight.  Alves doesn’t have the ground game to get up from a Koscheck takedown; nor does Kos have the hands to keep this fight standing for any length of time.  In the end, Kos will have what it takes to get Alves down and keep him there. Love him or hate him, the Ultimate Fighter Alum has constantly stepped up his game and will look to make an example out of the young prospect.
My Prediction: Koscheck by unanimous.

Rich Clementi (32-12-1) (5-3) vs. #9 Gray Maynard (5-0) (3-0)
Another Rich Clementi fight, another 1,276,953 articles about how Clementi has “No Love” for his opponent. It gets old, but apparently Clementi does not. After two loses in his “comeback” to the UFC, Clementi refocused and looks like a brand new man.  The question is: Does this brand new man have a good sprawl?

The last time we saw Gray Maynard he was throwing around one the UFC’s top lightweights. His decision win over Frank Edgar may not have been the most exciting, but it showed a side of Gray Maynard that few thought existed.  He’ll look to put an exclamation point on that at UFC 90.  Unlike Edgar, Clementi is far from one-dimensional and will test the legitimacy of Maynard’s talents. This fight’s hard to call, but Maynard’s talent should put him over the top.
My Prediction: Maynard by unanimous.

#2 Fabricio Werdum (11-3-1) (2-1) vs. Junior Dos Santos (6-1) (0-0)
Every so often, the UFC likes to keep people guessing. This is one of those times. Fabricio Werdum has looked like a beast in his last two fights so it only makes since that he’s rewarded with a chance to fight … Junior Dos Santos?  By all accounts, Dos Santos is the least recognizable fighter on the card and yet, he’s going to be fighting on the main card of a UFC PPV against one of the organization’s top five heavyweights.

Who will win? I think that was predetermined when the fight was signed. Werdum is likely just getting face time until the whole Lesnar/Couture/Mir/Nogueira thing works itself out. Still, the timing and opponent is surprising.  This fight should quickly go to the ground were Werdum is superior.
My Prediction: Werdum by TKO (ground and pound) in 2.

#4 Sean Sherk (32-3-1) (6-3) vs. #5 Tyson Griffin (12-1) (5-1)
Prepare for 15 minutes of lay-and-prey regardless of who wins. Both fighters are mirrors of each other and share a common problem; they can’t finish a fighter off. This fight will predictably be one by the fighter who can achieve the takedown. I betting that Sherk will get that takedown and smother Griffin for a quarter of an hour.  I
My Prediction: Sherk by lay-and-prey for a unanimous.

#7 Thales Leites (11-1) (2-1) vs. Drew McFedries (7-4) (3-3)
The reign of one-dimensional fighters is over. Apparently Drew McFedries didn’t get the memo. The Miletich slugger can throw hands with the best of the best, but couldn’t hang with the ring announcer on the ground. That becomes something of an “issue” in this fight. Thales Leites’ black belt is more than enough to get McFedries to cry uncle. Unless Leites starts thinking he’s Anderson Silva, this fight should end via submission in the first.
My Prediction: Leites by submission in 1.

#8 Spencer Fisher (21-4) (6-3) vs. Shannon Gugerty (10-2) (1-0)
Since his loss to Hermes Franca, Spencer Fisher has become labeled as a gatekeeper in the lightweight division.  This fight should remind us how unfair that label is. “The King” has legitimate skills and will look to show just how well rounded he is against a one-dimensional Shannon Gugerty.  By winning eight of his 11 fights by submission, the young City Boxing lightweight has an uphill battle he isn’t good enough to overcome. Spencer will win in devastating fashion.
Prediction: Fisher by TKO in 2.

#10 Dan Miller (9-1) (1-0) vs. Matt Horwich (22-10-1) (0-0)
Former IFL middleweight champion Dan Miller is at it again. Stepping into the Octagon for the second time in a month, he’ll face off with a familiar face. After 10 fights in the IFL, Matt Horwich showed he’s got the heart of a champion. Too bad he doesn’t have the skills of a one. As a matter of fact, I’m not quite sure why he was signed by the UFC. He’s better than average, and could pick up a few Ws, but has a very low upside. That will be apparent against Miller. Both fighters have tight ground games, but Miller is simply on another level. This fight should end on the ground, with Miller’s hand raised shortly after words.
My Prediction: Miller by submission in 2.

Hermes Franca (18-7) (5-4) vs. Marcus Aurelio (16-6) (2-2)
What a difference a year makes. A year ago Hermes Franca was fighting for UFC gold, now he’s fighting a former teammate buried in the undercard of a PPV. To make things interesting, his opponent is his former coach.

Marcus Aurelio has looked human during his UFC stint, but it should be noted that this man owns a win over Gomi. Unfortunately for Aurelio that has translated to a win over anyone memorable. That should change here. Bad blood makes good fights. I see this being a war with Aurelio taking the win.
My Prediction: Aurelio by unanimous.

Josh Burkman (9-6) (5-4) vs. Pete Sell (7-4) (1-4)
Will someone please make both of these fighters go away? The amount of boredom generated during this fight could power New York City for days.  The worst part is, someone has to win. That someone should be Josh Burkman.
My Prediction: 15 minutes of utter boredom followed by Burkman seeing his hand raised in front of an unpacked ground. This fight is first on the card for a reason.

UFC 89 Picks and Preview

The only thing better than a UFC PPV is a free UFC PPV. That’s exactly where we’re at this weekend and I’ll gladly put this on the Brits’ tab. The card is above average, no overly exciting match up, but once again, you can’t beat the price.

On he down side, some of the cards best fights won’t be aired; Jim Miller vs. David Baron and Dan Hardy vs. Akihiro Gono have been baned to the undercard.  Top prospect Shane Carwin also sees his name on the bottom the line up, but considering the lack of ilk of his opponent, we may get to see a glimpse when the UFC needs a 2 minute filler.

#5 Michael Bisping (16-1) (6-1) vs. Chris Leben (18-4) (8-3)
Once again, the cards are stacked up Michael Bisping’s favor. Not only is he fighting in his native England, but his opponent’s brawling style seems to be a perfect fit for his precision striking. Admittedly, Leben has looked more refined in his approach, but he’ll need to a completely different fighter if he wants a win this one.

Leben will look to brawl. It may be a more methodical attack, but it’ll still be a brawling. This may befuddle Bisping at first, it’s likely that the brash Brit thinks he can just walk through Leben (he can’t), but it will only be a matter of time before he finds his range.  Once he gets that, the fight will be over.

Simply put, Michael Bisping is a better fighter than Chris Leben. Unfortunately for us, this doesn’t mean that Bisping won’t celebrate like he won the World Series. He rarely lacks the dramatic in his home county. In the end, this looks to be an entertaining fight, but whether it goes the distance or stops early, it’s a pretty safe bet that Bisping’s hand will be raised.
My Prediction: Bisping by TKO in 2.

#6 Keith Jardine (13-3-1) (5-2) vs. #8 Brandon Vera (9-2) (5-2)
Which Keith Jardine will show up? It seems as if the “Dean of Mean” has a little problem with being over confident from time-to-time. It’s not that he didn’t entertain when he got dropped by Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander, it’s just that he’s a better fighter than that.

This brings me to Mr. Overrated himself. Brandon Vera is a very tough fighter; he’s got great hands, good jujitsu and a sparkling personality, but he never beaten a top ten fighter. Unfortunately for him, Keith Jardine is a top ten fighter. Not only that, after being disposed of by Wanderlei Silva, Jardine is more than motivated to take out the cocky Vera.

Look for the fight to standing with Vera attempting to use his Muy Thai skills while Jardine looks to get distance and land bombs. Vera tends to move away from the action, so it’s  pretty good bet that this fight will go the distance. I see Jardine controlling the pace and frustrating Vera, but without much action in between.
My Prediction: Jardine by unanimous.

#7 Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (5-2) (1-1) vs. Luiz Arthur Cane (8-1) (1-1)
Luiz Cane is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Sokoudjou may be over-hyped, but he does have lethal hands. Don’t take my word for it, just ask Cane on Sunday. Both fighters are strikers who will look to take apart the other in a short amount of time. I think what I trying to tell you is: don’t go to the bathroom during this fight … or blink.
My Prediction: Sokoudjou by TKO in 1.

Paul Taylor (9-3-1) (2-2) vs. Chris Lytle (25-16-5) (4-8)
With all the hype over the “new ” Chris Leben, it’s the “new” Chris Lytle that I look forward to seeing. After being defeated by Matt Hughes, Lytle decided that the he was going to take his fate into his own hands and fight more aggressively.  The result may not have show up in the win column, but it has looked a hell of a lot more entertaining.

Then we have Paul Taylor. The Brit is one of the better technical strikers in the U.K., but has been unable to let his hands go over the past two fights. He has more talent that Lytle, but his will to win is in question. I see this fight ending up on the ground after a well-placed jab from Lytle. That’s where things get bad for the English because Lytle has ground game and Taylor does not.
My Prediction: Lytle by submission in the third.

Paul Kelly (7-0) (1-0) vs. #9 Marcus Davis (13-4) (5-2)
The English invasion continues with Paul Kelly. The last time we saw him he was pulling off an upset over Paul Taylor at UFC 80.  He has a stiffer drink ahead of him this time around because Marcus Davis is back and, as most Irish in England are, he’s angry.  After being smothered for fifteen minutes by Mike Swick, Davis will look to take out some of his frustrations on Bisping’s stablemate.

Look for Davis to keep this fight standing by avoiding Kelly’s takedowns with ease, If Kelly wants to win, he’ll need to let his hands go to get inside enough to shoot in.  I don’t see that happening. Davis is simply too much for the young Kelly to handle. Davis’ hands will do the talking and the entertaining.
My Prediction: Davis by TKO in 2.

Dan Hardy (19-6-1) (0-0) vs. #10 Akihiro Gono (28-12-7) (1-0)
“The Magic Man” is back! Akihiro Gono makes his return to the Octagon against one of England’s best young prospects. As usual, Gono will need to take the fight to the ground in order to be victorious and may use his vast arsenal of Judo throws to get him there.

Dan Hardy has something completely different in mind. He will keep it simple and look to avoid Gono’s takedown and clinch attempts. Specifically, he’ll look to land some bombs. That may prove to be to tough of a task against a veteran like Gono. Too tough in fact. I see this fight going to the ground. That’s not a good thing for Hardy, the young Brit is a fish on the ground.
My Prediction: Gono by submission in 2.

Shane Carwin (9-0) (1-0) vs. Neil Wain (4-0) (0-0)
Few fighters have lived up to the hype quite like Shane Carwin. His UFC debut was more one-sided than Fox News. This should be more of the same as his opponent isn’t known by anybody who doesn’t share the same last name. His opponent is either Fat Albert or he’s so muscular he can’t wipe his ass. I have no idea because Sherdog doesn’t even have a picture of the guy.

I’m guessing he’s got a weight problem with a nickname like Old Skool and profile that reads 5′10 246lbs. Either way he’s in for a short night. At least he’s got that workin’ for him, eh?  I hear he’s a striker, but I really don’t care.  Carwin will rock him, take him down and bloody him up until the ref jumps in.
My Prediction: Carwin by TKO in 1.

Jess Liaudin (12-10) (2-2) vs. David Bielkheden (12-6) (0-1)
Wow. I hope the British fans are interested in this fight because I’m sure as hell not.  Laiudin is a mediocre fighter who’s made a name for himself by (sometimes) defeating people I’ve never heard of (or at least wish I hadn’t), while Bielkheden does a good job of getting hit.
My Prediction: Liaudin by decision or pure boredom.

Sam Stout (13-4-1) (2-3) vs. Terry Etim (10-2) (1-2)
Now it’s Sam Stout’s time to shine. Terry Etim is a man on a mission, and that mission is to lose. Stout is far from perfect, but Etim isn’t far from unemployed.
My Prediction: Stout by TKO in 2.

David Baron (16-2) (0-0) vs. Jim Miller (11-1) (0-0)
This is something I don’t understand about the UFC. Jim Miller and David Baron are studs.  Yet, their fight is buried under so deep into the undercard you need a machete. Why? Giving this fight airtime would only help market the winner.  I love the UFC, but I sometimes wonder how much weight is placed on The Ultimate Fighters.

As for the fight, David Baron is important for one reason, at Shooto Tradition 1 he did the unthinkable and defeated Hayato “Mach” Sakurai by submission.  Sakurai aside, Baron is a veteran who relies on his ground skills to make a living. He’ll look to prove he’s not a one-fight wonder as he takes on highly touted prospect Jim Miller.

Miller’s time in the IFL may have been short, but he made an impact by defeating Bart Palaszewski by unanimous decision.  Much like his opponent, Miller relies on his slick submission game to pick up Ws. This presents an issue, as both fighters are skill groundsmen, whomever wins the stand up will win the fight. My guess is as good as yours, but I got Miller.
My Prediction: Miller by unanimous.

Per Eklund (12-3-1) (0-1) vs. Samy Schiavo (10-5) (0-1)
Let’s just say Eklund.

UFC Fight Night Picks and Preview

Josh Neer (24-6-1) (3-3) vs. #7 Nathan Diaz (9-2) (4-0)
My first question is simply: why the hell is this the main event? I realize that Diaz-mania is at an all-time high, but Josh Neer? I guess I have to take the good with the bad when it comes to the Ultimate Marketing Machine. As for the fight, Diaz will look to get it to the ground ASAP. It won’t be easy, Neer is a scraper, but it’ll get to the mat by the second round. Once on top, Diaz is gold and Neer is out of the UFC.
My Prediction: Diaz by submission in 2.

#10 Mac Danzig (18-4-1) (2-0) vs. Clay Guida (23-9) (3-3)
No doubt, this should have been the main event. Danzig (unlike another Ultimate Fighter winner on the same card) will be tested by the always-game Clay Guida and will look to exploit his advantage on his feet. If he can avoid the takedown attempts of Guida, and maybe turn the tables on “The Carpenter” than he’ll move up the latter in the light heavyweight division.  I don’t see that happening though; Guida is one of the most impressive wrestlers at 155lbs and should overwhelm the confident Danzig.
My Prediction: Guida by unanimous.

Ed Herman (14-5) (3-3) vs. Alan Belcher (11-4) (3-3)
This fight can be summed up in one sentence: Ed Herman knows how to wrestle, Alan Belcher doesn’t. Never the most impressive fighter in the UFC, Herman will look to get the Belcher down. If he doesn’t, Belcher will knock his head off.  As much as I hate to say it, the red headed stepchild shouldn’t have too much trouble holding Belcher down for 15 minutes.
My Prediction: Herman by unanimous.

Houston Alexander (8-3) (2-2) vs. Eric Schafer (7-3-2) (1-2)
Houston we have a problem: Eric Schafer can wrestle. The one-dimensional Alexander steps into a touchy situation when he faces submission wrestler Eric “Red” Schafer.  No, Schafer isn’t a wrestling dynamo, but Alexander is the Check Kongo of 205lbs.  It’s obvious, but if Houston can keep the fight standing, it’ll be 90 seconds of pure entertainment, If he can’t, it’ll be … 90 seconds of pure entertainment. This fight shouldn’t take too long. I’m betting Schafer won’t get the opportunity to take this fight to the ground, but that’s simply because coin landed on “heads.”
My Prediction: Alexander by TKO in 1.

Wilson Gouveia (10-5) (4-3) vs. Ryan Jensen (13-4) (0-2)
I hate Wilson Gouveia. Not for anything he done or said but simply because every time I pick him to lose, he wins and vice-versa. He’ll be taking on a well-rounded and recycled Ryan Jensen at a new weight class. Being that he was always a tough, but small 205lber, this is a move that should pay great dividends. Since I lose no matter who I pick I’m feeling Gouveia.
My Prediction: Gouveia by TKO in 3.

Joe Lauzon (16-4) (3-1) vs. Kyle Bradley (13-5) (0-1)
Kyle Bradley is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Lauzon steps into the Octagon for the first time since losing to Kenny Florian and Bradley is simply in his way. Lauzon will use his impressive combination of striking and submission to end this fight fast. Look for a submission somewhere in the second round.
My Prediction: Lauzon by submission in 2.

Dan Miller (8-1) (0-0) vs. Rob Kimmons (21-3) (1-0)
Former IFL champion Dan Miller makes a tough debut again Rob Kimmons. Too bad no one will know about it. Instead of watching these two prospects, we’ll be treated the battle of the washed up middleweight of Belcher-Herman. This fight is something special. Kimmons is a very talented ground fighter who can take any opening and turn into a submission victory, While Miller is well rounded fighter with excellent ground skills This should be battle won by Miller, but should be entertaining to all. Look for fight of the night in this undercard bout.
My Prediction: Miller by unanimous.

Drew McFedries (7-3) (3-2) vs. Mike Massenzio (10-2) (0-0)
Somebody get the highlight reel ready, this one going to bring the fireworks. When Drew McFedries steps into the Octagon, someone is going to get dropped, even if it’s him. Massenzio is a striker with a similar reputation, just not as well known. Look for this fight to end with a bang, and McFedries will likely end up on top.
My Prediction: McFedries by TKO in 1.

Jason Brilz (15-1-1) (0-0) vs. Brad Morris (9-3) (0-1)
The only thing I know, is that Jason Brilz is a world-class wrestler and that Brad Morris doesn’t like that. We last saw Morris getting destroyed at heavyweight when he stepped in with Cain Velasquez. Although this fight is at light heavyweight, I expect similar results.
My Prediction: Brilz by TKO in 3.

Alessio Sakara (12-7) (3-4) vs. Joe Vedepo (7-1) (0-0)
I don’t know who Vedepo is, but he’s going to win. Sakara is always a limp-wristed slap away from being knocked out, and there’s no doubt that Vedepo can do that. If it’s quick, we may get a chance to see this fight when a 30 spot is needed.
My Prediction: Vedepo by TKO in 1.